The Theory of Poker

Key Takeaways

1. Poker is a Game of Skill, Not Luck

For above all, you must remember that poker is not primarily a game of luck. It is a game of skill.

Skill over chance. While luck plays a role in individual hands, poker is fundamentally a game of skill. Expert players minimize the impact of luck by making informed decisions based on strategy, psychology, and mathematics. They focus on maximizing profits on good hands and minimizing losses on bad hands.

Long-term perspective. Over the long run, the best players will consistently win more than they lose. This is because they are making plays with positive expectation, while weaker players are making plays with negative expectation. The key is to focus on making the right decisions, not on the outcome of any single hand.

Expert vs. novice. Beginning players rely on big hands and lucky draws, while expert players use their skills to minimize losses on bad hands and maximize profits on big hands. They also are able to judge better than others when a big hand is not the best hand and when a small hand is the best hand.

2. Expectation and Hourly Rate Drive Profitability

Anytime you make a bet with the best of it, where the odds are in your favor, you have earned something on that bet, whether you actually win or lose the bet.

Mathematical expectation. This is the amount a bet will average winning or losing. It is a crucial concept for evaluating gambling problems and poker plays. A positive expectation means the odds are in your favor, while a negative expectation means the odds are against you.

Hourly rate. This is the amount of money you expect to win per hour. It is determined by your share of the total hourly loss of the bad players in the game, minus the house rake or hourly seat charge. Professional players focus on maximizing their hourly rate by making plays with positive expectation.

Focus on the long run. Serious gamblers bet only when they have the best of it, and they understand that their eventual winnings will approximate their projected hourly rate multiplied by the total hours played. They are not anxious about making a big score, but rather focus on making the right plays.

3. The Fundamental Theorem: Play With Full Knowledge

Every time you play a hand differently from the way you would have played it if you could see all your opponents' cards, they gain; and every time you play your hand the same way you would have played it if you could see all their cards, they lose.

The core principle. This theorem highlights the importance of making decisions based on complete information. In poker, where information is incomplete, the goal is to play as closely as possible to the way you would play if you could see all your opponents' cards.

Mistakes and gains. When opponents play differently from how they would if they could see your cards, you gain. Conversely, when they play as they would with full knowledge, you lose. The goal is to make your opponents play in a way that would be incorrect if they knew what you had.

Deception and reading hands. The Fundamental Theorem emphasizes the importance of both deception and reading hands. You must play deceptively to make your opponents play incorrectly, and you must read hands accurately to play correctly yourself.

4. Ante Structure Dictates Starting Hand Requirements

The lower the ante in comparison to future bets, the fewer hands you should play; the higher the ante, the more hands you should play.

Ante size matters. The size of the ante in relation to future bets is a key factor in determining how many hands you should play. A large ante encourages looser play, while a small ante encourages tighter play.

Pot odds and expectation. The ante creates an initial pot, and you should play your hand in terms of the odds you're getting for each bet in relation to your expectation of winning. The higher the ante, the better the pot odds, and the more hands you should play.

Stealing antes. In large-ante games, it becomes correct to try to steal antes, especially against tight players. In small-ante games, you should play tight and let aggressive players control the game.

5. Pot Odds: The Price of a Call

It is essential to know pot odds to figure out expectation.

Pot odds defined. Pot odds are the odds the pot is giving you for calling a bet. They are calculated by comparing the amount you have to call to the total amount in the pot.

Comparing odds. When all the cards are out, you must decide whether your hand is worth a call based on the pot odds and your chances of having the best hand. When more cards are to come, you must compare your chances of improving to your pot odds.

Exposed cards and position. In open-handed games, you must take into account the effect of exposed cards on your chances of making a hand. Your position in the betting sequence may also reduce the pot odds you are getting.

6. Effective Odds: Planning for Future Bets

When you compute odds on a hand you intend to play to the end, you must think not in terms of the immediate pot odds but in terms of the total amount you might lose versus the total amount you might win.

Beyond immediate odds. When there is more than one card to come, you must consider future bets when assessing your pot odds. Your effective odds are the real odds you are getting from the pot when you call a bet with more than one card to come.

Calculating effective odds. You add all the calls you will have to make, assuming you play to the end, to determine the total amount you will lose if you don't make your hand. Then compare this figure to the total amount you should win if you do make the hand.

Exceptions to effective odds. You do not have to consider future bets when either you or your opponent is all-in or when you have good reason to think your opponent might check on the next round.

7. Implied Odds: The Promise of Future Winnings

Implied odds are based on the possibility of winning money in later betting rounds over and above what is in the pot already.

Future profits. Implied odds are the ratio of your total expected win when your card hits to the present cost of calling a bet. They are based on the possibility of winning money in later betting rounds over and above what is in the pot already.

Pot-limit and no-limit games. Implied odds are most significant in pot-limit and no-limit games, where a future bet can be as large as the amount of money a player has in front of him. In these games, you are often considering not how much is in the pot right now, but rather how much can be won on a future round of betting.

Reverse implied odds. These describe situations in which you have a mediocre hand with little chance of improving, which you think is the best hand at the moment, yet your opponent keeps betting. You are in the position of winning the minimum if you have the best hand but losing the maximum if you have the worst hand.

8. Deception: The Art of Misinformation

The more your play gives away what you have, the less likely it is that your opponents will make a mistake.

The cost of giving away your hand. When you play in a way that lets your opponents know what you have, you may be costing yourself substantially. The more your play gives away what you have, the less likely it is that your opponents will make a mistake.

Deception and opponent ability. The tougher your opponents are, the more you must consider playing a hand other than optimally to throw them off. The weaker they are, the more you can get away with optimum play.

Other factors in deception. The size of the pot, the size of the bets, and the number of opponents in the pot also affect how much you should disguise your hand. The general rule is: The better the players and the smaller the pot, the more you disguise your hand when there are more cards to come.

9. Win Big Pots Immediately

As a pot gets larger and larger, you nearly always want to win it instantly.

The goal is to win now. When the pot is large, you generally prefer your opponent to fold rather than call, even when your hand is the best hand. This is because when you bet in a limit game and the pot is large, your opponent's hand, though second best, is rarely so much of an underdog that he is not getting good enough odds to chase you.

Betting to drive out opponents. You should bet or raise to drive out as many opponents as possible, even when you suspect you have the second-best hand. You want to force out the other hands.

Delaying to drive out opponents. In structured games, you may want to wait until the bet doubles in size before putting in a raise to drive people out.

10. The Free Card: A Double-Edged Sword

When you have the best hand, you do not want to give opponents a free card since you are giving them a chance to outdraw you and win the pot.

Giving a free card. This means checking a hand you could have bet when there are more cards to come. When you know or are pretty sure you have the best hand, you have to decide whether or not to give your opponent a free card.

Getting a free card. When you do not have the best hand, you want to try to get a free card to get a free shot at winning the pot. Getting a free card against reasonably good players is not easy.

Position and the free card. The player who acts second can give himself a free card, but the player who acts first cannot. Therefore, in first position you have to bet some hands you wouldn't bet in last position because you do not want to give your opponent the option of checking for a free card with the worst hand.

11. The Semi-Bluff: A Powerful Weapon

A semi-bluff is a bet with a hand which, if called, does not figure to be the best hand at the moment but has a reasonable chance of outdrawing those hands that initially called it.

Betting on the come. The semi-bluff is a bet with a hand that has a reasonable chance of improving to the best hand. It is a powerful weapon because it combines the advantages of a bluff with the possibility of winning in a showdown.

Advantages of the semi-bluff. It makes your opponent play incorrectly, it prevents you from giving worse hands free cards, it adds deceptiveness to your game, and it can sometimes get you a free card.

Semi-bluffs vs. pure bluffs. Semi-bluffs are generally more profitable than pure bluffs because they have more ways of winning. They are also a good way to randomize your bluffs.

12. Position: The Power of Acting Last

The lower the ante in comparison to future bets, the fewer hands you should play; the higher the ante, the more hands you should play.

Last is best. It is far better to be last to act because it is generally easier to decide what to do after you have seen what your opponents have done. The worst position is to be first since you must act before you know what any of your opponents are going to do.

Advantages of last position. You can call without fear of a raise behind you, you can check behind opponents to get a free card, and you can bet or raise with more information.

Adjusting to position. You must adjust your play to your position in the betting sequence. You should play more aggressively in last position and more cautiously in first position.

Last updated: January 24, 2025

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