Decisive

Key Takeaways

1. Recognize and overcome the four villains of decision making

Our decisions are often derailed by four predictable villains: narrow framing, confirmation bias, short-term emotion, and overconfidence.

Narrow framing limits our choices by presenting decisions as binary "whether or not" options. This leads to overlooking creative alternatives. Confirmation bias causes us to seek information that supports our existing beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence. Short-term emotion clouds our judgment and prevents clear long-term thinking. Overconfidence in our ability to predict the future makes us underestimate risks and overestimate potential gains.

To combat these villains:

• Actively look for additional options beyond the obvious choices
• Seek out information that challenges your initial assumptions
• Create distance from immediate emotions before deciding
• Consider multiple future scenarios, both positive and negative

2. Widen your options by exploring alternatives beyond the obvious

Steve Cole, the VP of research and development at HopeLab, a nonprofit that fights to improve kids' health using technology, said, "Any time in life you're tempted to think, 'Should I do this OR that?' instead, ask yourself, 'Is there a way I can do this AND that?'"

Think AND not OR. When faced with a seemingly binary choice, challenge yourself to find a creative solution that combines elements of both options. This opens up new possibilities and often leads to superior outcomes.

Techniques for widening your options:

• Use the Vanishing Options Test: Ask "What if I couldn't choose any of the current options?"
• Look for someone who's solved your problem before
• Create a "playlist" of potential solutions to common challenges
• Multitrack by pursuing multiple options simultaneously
• "Ooch" by conducting small experiments to test ideas before fully committing

3. Reality-test your assumptions through disconfirming evidence

Confirmation bias is probably the single biggest problem in business, because even the most sophisticated people get it wrong. People go out and they're collecting the data, and they don't realize they're cooking the books.

Actively seek contradictory information. Our natural tendency is to look for evidence that supports our existing beliefs. To make better decisions, deliberately search for information that challenges your assumptions.

Strategies for reality-testing:

• Ask disconfirming questions: "What problems does it have?" instead of "Do you like it?"
• Consider the opposite: Imagine reasons why your initial judgment might be wrong
• Zoom out to get base rates: Look at the average outcomes for similar situations
• Zoom in to get concrete details: Talk to people with firsthand experience
• Ooch: Run small experiments to test assumptions before making big commitments

4. Attain distance before deciding to overcome short-term emotions

Short-term emotion will often tempt you to make the wrong one.

Create psychological distance. Immediate emotions can cloud our judgment and lead to decisions we later regret. By creating mental space between ourselves and the decision, we can better align our choices with our long-term values and goals.

Techniques for attaining distance:

• Use 10/10/10: How will you feel about this decision in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years?
• Ask "What would I tell my best friend to do in this situation?"
• Imagine yourself as an outside observer looking at the situation
• Consider your core priorities and how each option aligns with them
• Set tripwires to prompt reevaluation at specific points in the future

5. Prepare to be wrong by considering multiple future scenarios

Our decisions will never be perfect, but they can be better. Bolder. Wiser. The right process can steer us toward the right choice.

Plan for multiple outcomes. Overconfidence in our ability to predict the future often leads to poor planning. By considering a range of possible scenarios, both positive and negative, we can better prepare for whatever actually happens.

Methods for preparing to be wrong:

• Bookend the future: Consider both extremely positive and negative outcomes
• Conduct a premortem: Imagine the decision has failed and analyze why
• Run a preparade: Envision wild success and plan how to handle it
• Set a tripwire: Establish clear conditions that will trigger reevaluation
• Use a safety factor: Build in extra margin to account for uncertainty

6. Use a consistent decision-making process to improve outcomes

Process mattered more than analysis—by a factor of six.

Follow a structured approach. Ad hoc decision-making is prone to biases and inconsistencies. By adopting a systematic process, we can improve the quality of our decisions over time.

Key elements of an effective decision-making process:

• Widen Your Options: Generate multiple alternatives
• Reality-Test Your Assumptions: Actively seek disconfirming information
• Attain Distance Before Deciding: Overcome short-term emotions
• Prepare to Be Wrong: Consider multiple future scenarios

Benefits of a consistent process:

• Reduces the impact of cognitive biases
• Improves the quality of information considered
• Increases confidence in decisions
• Allows for continuous improvement over time

7. Trust the process, not just your gut instincts

Being decisive is itself a choice. Decisiveness is a way of behaving, not an inherited trait. It allows us to make brave and confident choices, not because we know we'll be right but because it's better to try and fail than to delay and regret.

Embrace uncertainty. While gut instincts can be valuable, they are often unreliable for complex decisions. By trusting a well-designed process, we can make better choices even in the face of uncertainty.

Advantages of trusting the process:

• Provides confidence to make bolder decisions
• Reduces anxiety and second-guessing
• Allows for faster decision-making in many cases
• Improves outcomes over time through consistent application

Remember that no process guarantees perfect results, but it can significantly increase your odds of making good decisions. The goal is to make better choices more consistently, not to achieve perfection.

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Last updated: January 22, 2025

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